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Southwestern Taiwan has not seen much rain lately, but could the amount of rainfall have implications for seismic activity? After analyzing 16 years of satellite data, researchers at Academia Sinica discovered that seasonal rainfall may actually help regulate earthquakes. Every year during the dry season from February to April, the earth’s crust below southwestern Taiwan lifts as downward pressure eases, raising the frequency of earthquakes of at least magnitude 2.5 by 30% on average. However, seismologists stress that the correlation between seismic activity and groundwater levels shouldn’t be a cause for concern. And meteorologists have good news: From June 5, the region will finally see significant plum rains.
An expert can tap a watermelon to know if it’s sweet or not. The drier the weather, the sweeter it’ll be. Amid scant rainfall in southern Taiwan, reservoir levels have been plummeting. But that’s not all. Academia Sinica researchers have also discovered that the dry season may actually increase the frequency of earthquakes by 30%
Voice of Kuo Kai-wen
Seismologist
Groundwater permeates into the earth at a very slow rate. The depth of many of our earthquakes is at least 10km, meaning there’s no definitive correlation between seismic activity and surface water levels. There’s no need to worry that much. And large quakes of magnitude 6 or above aren’t that easy to predict.
While this seismologist stresses there’s no need to worry, Academia Sinica analysis of satellite data between 2002 and 2018 found that quakes are more likely during times of low rainfall. Researchers believe the primary reason is hydrological shifting, with the vertical stress amplitude induced by water fluctuations two to four times higher than horizontal stress. Tectonic pressure aside, the south desperately needs drought relief. A powerful Pacific high-pressure system in May kept the seasonal plum rains away, but the southwest monsoon is finally projected to move northward in early June.
Voice of Wu Sheng-yu
Meteorologist
Starting on the 5th or 6th and continuing until the middle of June, the southwest monsoon will gradually move north. For about seven to 10 days, during this time, there’s a good chance of developing a typical plum rain front.
As June looks poised to end Taiwan’s dry spell, the impending rainfall may do more than just alleviate drought—it could also help relieve the mounting stress built up beneath the earth’s crust.
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